Spring has sprung, and of course that brings with it the inevitable claim that the "green shoots of recovery" are upon us.

This was emphasised by Larry Kantor of Barclays Capital writing in his latest client note that he saw signs of "green shoots."

His argument is that expectations are so low, the market is beaten and the prognosis so grim, that it is time to start being more aggressive in investment decisions to take advantage of the situation. He believes a turnaround starts in Asia and quickly moves to other markets not so badly affected by financial collapse.

In other words, countries like Britain and the U.S. which are at the center of the financial meltdown are going to be amongst the last to recover.

There is solid common sense in Kantor's views. There has been so much unprecedented action by policy makers on the monetary, fiscal and regulatory front that recovery is inevitable. It is just a question of when and how strong.

Are you seeing the green shoots of recovery in your economic life yet ?

Tonight's Profitable Moment....from Quest Means Business

So with what is the road to recovery paved ? We certainly know rose petals aren't being strewn in our path. But is it right to say we are on a road to hell as the Czech prime minister described Obama's economic policy.

No one doubts the road has deep pot holes. The evidence of a hard journey ahead is everywhere. Large budget deficits that will be millstones round our necks for decades are piling up. Homes are being lost, there is virtually no economic cheer – and the best we can hope for is a tepid growth later in the year. This much we already know.

But what makes the journey hellish ? Is it the fear of the unknown, or the near certain fact that our standards of living are going to fall. Perhaps we are now so much in love with the latest gadget and mobile gizmo that the thought of anything else sends us into despair. I find that hard to accept. We can do better than define our journey being consumed by the latest consumer trinket.

Whether it's the road to recovery or hell – there are many twists, turns and cul de sacs. We won't always agree on the best route to get us home. There is no Satnav to economic nirvana.

The cat is out of the bag in Britain in a big way. The warning by the governor of the Bank of England AGAINST a further large stimulus package was a slap in the face to Gordon Brown's government .It is in the very nature of Central bankers to be cautious – to proceed ponderously when others wish to rush, but Mervyn King left no doubt as to his views. ""Given how big these deficits are", King said, "I think it would be sensible to be cautious about going further in using discretionary measures to expand the size of the those deficits."

In Quest-speak Whoa....time to start worrying about how we are going to pay the bills when this is all over.

The Gov. was speaking before a parliamentary committee and would have been well aware of the bomb he was dropping on the UK governments head. Normally he would never be so blunt. Coming just a week before the G20 meeting it is an explosion indeed.....giving Gordon Brown's European counterparts Angela Merkel and Nikolas Sarkozy good ground for saying "hang on, even your own central bank chief believes enough is enough !"

The issue isn't more needs to be done: The problem is so much has been done already, in such a short period of time, and not just in the UK.

We have had record breaking cuts in interest rates (in less than two years they have fallen 5.25 per cent !) to record breaking lows. We have had record breaking Stimulus Packages and Bailout packages and we have seen central banks embark on record breaking printing of money known as Quantitative Easing. All of which will create record breaking budget deficits ! That's a lot of record breaking, even in record breaking times !

There is a tsunami of money slowly, but inexorably working its way through the economy. And all the Governor was saying was.....er....maybe it's time to watch and wait and see the effect of all of this stuff before doing anymore.

Let there be no doubt – all this record breaking stuff will have an effect and we will see it, albeit later rather than sooner. By which time it may be too late.

Which is why the Governor made his, almost, record breaking comments.

The AIG bonus issue has me on the defensive – and all because I was silly enough to open my mouth in support of the rule of law. I opined out loud that it seemed very heavy handed for any government, let alone the US Federal Government to try and overturn existing contractual arrangements – a true slippery slope argument if ever I saw one.And then the flood gates opened. Most of you thought I was wrong. The malfeasance at AIG being so great that anything short of the Public Stocks of Victorian England would be too good for the executives who got retention bonuses.

So let me clarify – I agree that the way AIG was run into the ground is amongst the most heinous of corporate acts. I don't believe retention bonuses should be paid, or indeed any bonuses. But if you were lucky enough to get some sucker to agree to such a term in your contract then it has to be honoured.

I am pleased that the US government appears to have found a way out – by deducting the bonus amount , $160m, from bailout funds being paid to AIG. After all, it is the US government money keeping the company afloat and it is entitled to say what should be done with it. The old phrase He who Pays the Piper...comes to mind.

A simple solution that preserves the rule of law – decisions have consequences and the result of this one leaves the mess where it belongs: With AIG and its ill-deserving employees.